Can Vettel set new record for most wins in a season in 2011?

Collieafc · Post by **Collieafc** » 29 May 2011, 18:07

Following Vettels 5th win in 6 races, I have got to thinking - will he surpass Schumachers record for most wins in a single season (13 out of 18 in 2004) in 2011? At this current point he is sitting on the same form as Schumacher was after 6 races

I am starting to think he can as at this point, nothing can seem to go wrong for him. Even today at Monaco his luck held out, but usually he doesnt need luck this year. And he has only once failed to get pole. Plus he has an extra race this season to help him break this record.

What does everybody else reckon?

ADx_Wales · Post by **ADx_Wales** » 29 May 2011, 18:09

Its tediously inevitable at this rate.

F1000X · Post by **F1000X** » 29 May 2011, 18:10

Yeah. It sucks.

CarlosFerreira · Post by **CarlosFerreira** » 29 May 2011, 18:40

Seems like it. Hopefully, the racing behind will go on being interesting.

tc3j3r · Post by **tc3j3r** » 29 May 2011, 18:44

He's also in the same position as Jenson Button in 2009, and he only won one more race for the remainder of the season, so maybe there is some hope...

patrick · Post by **patrick** » 29 May 2011, 19:00

tc3j3r wrote:He's also in the same position as Jenson Button in 2009, and he only won one more race for the remainder of the season, so maybe there is some hope...

Yes indeed, let's not forget the eternal words of Murray Walker - "anything can happen in Formula 1, and it usually does!"
The next few races will be key to the chasing pack - they missed a chance here in Monaco but Canada will be mental, and let's not forget the constant unknowns of Spa, Silverstone, Korea and India to name a few. And the developmental pace could quite easily catch Red Bull out - I'm sure McLaren or Ferrari could quite easily happen upon a good upgrade.
So I'm reluctant to write this season off. Let's not forget, Vettel could quite easily have lost Monaco and Spain

Ferrim · Post by **Ferrim** » 29 May 2011, 19:13

The same question in a different way:

Can Vettel win 9 of the remaining 13 races?

Post by **mario** » 29 May 2011, 19:17

Collieafc wrote:Following Vettels 5th win in 6 races, I have got to thinking - will he surpass Schumachers record for most wins in a single season (13 out of 18 in 2004) in 2011? At this current point he is sitting on the same form as Schumacher was after 6 races

I am starting to think he can as at this point, nothing can seem to go wrong for him. Even today at Monaco his luck held out, but usually he doesnt need luck this year. And he has only once failed to get pole. Plus he has an extra race this season to help him break this record.

What does everybody else reckon?

And even where he didn't start on pole, he was still on the front row and 2nd going into the first turn.

It's certainly possible that he could take many more wins this season - there are only a few circuits left where he might be vulnerable under normal dry conditions, which are Canada, Spa-Francorchamps and Monza (especially Monza, which is the last of the old fashioned power circuits). The RB7 is working magnificently, as shown by the pole positions it has easily won and the string of fastest laps, and it does look like it could beat the records set by Schumacher and the F2004 (incidentally, Webber has taken four fastest laps this season - so, he does still have some pace up his sleeve, but only in flashes during the race, it seems).

At this rate, it might even surpass the MP4/4 in terms of superiority, at least in the hands of Vettel - he has led over 75% of all the laps this season, and apparently some bookmakers (Williams Hill in particular, I believe) started paying out after the Spanish GP to those who'd bet on Vettel winning another title this year (on the basis that he had such a substantial lead already, and no signs of letting up).

As patrick says, though, we are still just a third of the way through the season, so in principle McLaren and Ferrari could catch Red Bull, especially once the restrictions on blowing the diffuser come into play from Canada onwards (since that is where the RB7 is making up a lot of ground over its opponents, it seems). Ferrari do seem to be getting more out of their car now, especially in race trim (though it is still weak on the harder compounds and low fuel), whilst McLaren have a good reputation for developing their car.
The WDC probably had Vettel's name on it already (with his lead, it would take three consecutive non points finishes and Hamilton, the next nearest driver, winning three times in a row to overhaul Vettel in the WDC), but hopefully we will get a chance to see somebody else on the top step of the podium, at least to give a semblance of a challenge to Vettel.

DOSBoot · Post by **DOSBoot** » 29 May 2011, 19:24

It sure looks like it. By the way things are going, he might break Nigel Mansell's pole position record from 1992. (14 out of 16 races.) I'm not looking forward to that.

DonTirri · Post by **DonTirri** » 29 May 2011, 19:57

DOSBoot wrote:It sure looks like it. By the way things are going, he might break Nigel Mansell's pole position record from 1992. (14 out of 16 races.) I'm not looking forward to that.

I'd love to see that record broken. Simply because Nige doesn't deserve records or mentions for ANYTHING he did on that season.
Sure, RB7 is very strong against the competition, but comparing the FW14B to the next best car a.k.a the MP4/7A is like comparing the RB7 to the T127.

patrick · Post by **patrick** » 29 May 2011, 20:02

mario wrote:especially once the restrictions on blowing the diffuser come into play from Canada onwards

I thought the EBD restrictions were coming in at Silverstone, which is what the BBC were saying all day. I'm not sure though, mixed reports around

Pedestrian · Post by **Pedestrian** » 29 May 2011, 20:10

I don't think so. Vettel has had superhuman amouts of luck so far, but even his luck must run out eventually. He doesn't have the fastest car in race trim at least since Spain (perhaps since even earlier IMO), so normally somebody else should start to win races too (and I'mlooking at you, McLaren boys!).

I'd love to see that record broken. Simply because Nige doesn't deserve records or mentions for ANYTHING he did on that season.
Sure, RB7 is very strong against the competition, but comparing the FW14B to the next best car a.k.a the MP4/7A is like comparing the RB7 to the T127.

This is a good argument why Vettel's car doesn't deserve the record, while Nigel's did.

DOSBoot · Post by **DOSBoot** » 29 May 2011, 20:15

DonTirri wrote:
DOSBoot wrote:It sure looks like it. By the way things are going, he might break Nigel Mansell's pole position record from 1992. (14 out of 16 races.) I'm not looking forward to that.

I'd love to see that record broken. Simply because Nige doesn't deserve records or mentions for ANYTHING he did on that season.
Sure, RB7 is very strong against the competition, but comparing the FW14B to the next best car a.k.a the MP4/7A is like comparing the RB7 to the T127.

It's not so much because of Mansell himself. It's just I don't want to have another boring season like that. I think Mansell's record should stand as a "warning from history".

ADx_Wales · Post by **ADx_Wales** » 29 May 2011, 20:22

Schumacher's 2002 should also be a warning from history then...

DOSBoot · Post by **DOSBoot** » 29 May 2011, 20:25

I don't see why not. Although he only poled seven times out of his dominant season. But still.......

JeanDenisAlcatraz · Post by **JeanDenisAlcatraz** » 29 May 2011, 20:56

I disagree with the doom and gloom.

This season could be a real 'I was there' moment to tell our grandkids about. F1 is about achievement, and what an achievement this could be.

We're also having excellent midfield battles.

Also, as long as Kobayashi keeps his good form going, I don't care what happens at the front

Phoenix · Post by **Phoenix** » 29 May 2011, 20:58

It'd be very difficult to repeat Schumacher's feat, but sadly the Red Bull, as well as his standing within the team, looks so dominant I wouldn't rule out that possibility.

Cynon · Post by **Cynon** » 29 May 2011, 21:03

Vettel will easily win 9 of the remaining 13 races unless Ferrari gets their act together and McLaren becomes a 1 car team like Red Bull and Ferrari.

Dan B · Post by **Dan B** » 29 May 2011, 21:27

EDIT: Woops, misread.

Benetton · Post by **Benetton** » 29 May 2011, 22:29

He has a genuine chance for sure but I don't think he'll beat Michael's record.

However, I do think he will beat Mansell's pole position record.

Klon · Post by **Klon** » 29 May 2011, 23:28

To be honest, I see him matching the record. Not beating it, though. Monza and maybe Canada will most likely work against Red Bull due to Renault engines being slightly weaker than Mercedes engines. One race will see Vettel's luck run out. And, after the championship has been decided, I guess Webber may grab some wins in Barrichello-style.

Warren Hughes · Post by **Warren Hughes** » 29 May 2011, 23:34

I'm hoping for a 2009-style revival from McLaren and Ferrari once the diffuser rules are clarified. To be honest, it's hard to see that record being beaten when there are so many variables in F1 2011. Having said that, I do think the championship looks like something of a foregone conclusion at this stage...

RainierSassetti · Post by **RainierSassetti** » 29 May 2011, 23:54

In the Canadian french coverage they said that Christian Horner told that he's aiming to clinch the WDC ASAP, "As long as our car is the same spec" or something.

F1000X · Post by **F1000X** » 30 May 2011, 00:31

mario wrote: The WDC probably had Vettel's name on it already (with his lead, it would take three consecutive non points finishes and Hamilton, the next nearest driver, winning three times in a row to overhaul Vettel in the WDC), but hopefully we will get a chance to see somebody else on the top step of the podium, at least to give a semblance of a challenge to Vettel.

I think that about says it all, weather it's in an absolutely dominating fashion (a la Schumacher), or small consistent points results (a la Button) the championship is over and it's just a matter of how soon Vettel will collect. I will be astounded if the new blown diffuser rules cost Vettel his speed, but even if they do, it won't be enough. Vettel isn't going to have those 3 DNFs, not even if Hamilton is lucky enough to win 3 races.

The battle I'm looking forward to is Hamilton vs. Alonso, a true throwback to 2007 grudge match. Hopefully Button and Webber will surprise me, but my money is on only those two slugging it out in the back half of the season for best of the rest.

Here is what I found REALLY depressing. If Vettel were to win the next race and every subsequent race, with Hamilton and Button always finishing 2nd and 3rd, if my math is right, all Mark Webber would have to do is finish an average of 8th for the rest of the season, and they would STILL beat McLaren in the constructors championship. (599 Redbull to 590 McLaren). Basically, all Webber needs to do is keep from retiring, as he seems certainly competitive enough to keep finishing in the points every race, as long he suffers no trouble.

TL;DR Redbull's gonna win everything, unless Vettel drops dead.

Peter · Post by **Peter** » 30 May 2011, 02:45

If Vettel breaks that record, I will officially stop watching Formula One. I have seen "The Finger" Far too many times already. I have a finger I want to show Vettel. :evil:

James1978 · Post by **James1978** » 30 May 2011, 08:22

I actually don't think he will, I think unlike in 2002, the competition is too close.

The championship is over though - due to the change in the points system from 2009 - Button still had it all to do at this stage in 2009 becuase it was only a 2 point differential between 1st and 2nd, now it's 7 points which is massive.

McJaggers · Post by **McJaggers** » 30 May 2011, 09:57

James1978 wrote:I actually don't think he will, I think unlike in 2002, the competition is too close.

The championship is over though - due to the change in the points system from 2009 - Button still had it all to do at this stage in 2009 becuase it was only a 2 point differential between 1st and 2nd, now it's 7 points which is massive.

In relative terms, if you were to multiply 1st place and 2nd place by 2.5 (so that first gets 25, like now). Its 20 points rather than 18. The points change did very little relative to 2009. It seems to be a compromise between the 10-8-6... and then 10-6-4... used in years passed.

Ferrim · Post by **Ferrim** » 30 May 2011, 10:01

James1978 wrote:I actually don't think he will, I think unlike in 2002, the competition is too close.

The championship is over though - due to the change in the points system from 2009 - Button still had it all to do at this stage in 2009 becuase it was only a 2 point differential between 1st and 2nd, now it's 7 points which is massive.

But Button's rivals could only hope to collect 10 points every race -now it's a massive 25! :mrgreen:

GroupLotusRenault · Post by **GroupLotusRenault** » 30 May 2011, 10:24

Vettel won 5 races last year he has already won 5 of the 6 races and finished second so he is mentally stronger then the others. however as mario has pointed out the RB7 is stil the fastest, but Mclaren & ferrari are gaining and yes Vettel has a huge lead, but the championship is far from over.

Shizuka · Post by **Shizuka** » 30 May 2011, 11:44

A certain Spanish driver has won 6 races and finished 2nd in the other three in the first 9 races of a season... and if it wasn't for a certain rival having a shock mechanical problem, he would have had a tough final race against this Spaniard.

tc3j3r · Post by **tc3j3r** » 30 May 2011, 11:53

Shizuka wrote:A certain Spanish driver has won 6 races and finished 2nd in the other three in the first 9 races of a season... and if it wasn't for a certain rival having a shock mechanical problem, he would have had a tough final race against this Spaniard.

What's more, the same predictions that are being made now were being made then... http://www.f1rejects.com/centrale/2006/canada/index.html

Peter · Post by **Peter** » 31 May 2011, 02:14

To be honest, Red Bull is quicky being caught up by McLaren and Ferrari. In Australia and Malaysia, Vettel rocketed into the leads and stayed there. In China, Hamilton managed to catch up and pass him. Turkey, another Red bull show, but in Spain, again, Hamilton was chasing him to the victory. Here in Monaco, again Vettel being chased to victory by now one, but two drivers. You might argue that it's poor tyre strategy by Red Bull, but I say it's the other guys catching up. By half season Vettle won't be winning anymore, unless Newey brings some new upgrades. Plus he engine mapping thingy will be banned soon, Red Bull will be in the clutches of McLaren and Ferrari very soon.

F1000X · Post by **F1000X** » 31 May 2011, 03:00

Peter wrote:To be honest, Red Bull is quicky being caught up by McLaren and Ferrari. In Australia and Malaysia, Vettel rocketed into the leads and stayed there. In China, Hamilton managed to catch up and pass him. Turkey, another Red bull show, but in Spain, again, Hamilton was chasing him to the victory. Here in Monaco, again Vettel being chased to victory by now one, but two drivers. You might argue that it's poor tyre strategy by Red Bull, but I say it's the other guys catching up. By half season Vettle won't be winning anymore, unless Newey brings some new upgrades. Plus he engine mapping thingy will be banned soon, Red Bull will be in the clutches of McLaren and Ferrari very soon.

Until McLaren or Ferrari start qualifying ahead of Vettel, they haven't caught up.

Row Man Gross-Gene · Post by **Row Man Gross-Gene** » 31 May 2011, 03:33

There's something to be said for witnessing an historic season. If you follow golf, it's like Tiger Woods' 2000 season. The inevitability of his wins was offset by seeing someone at the peak of performance. As long as the racing is decent, I can settle for an inevitable Vettel championship.

Peter · Post by **Peter** » 31 May 2011, 05:05

F1000X wrote:
Peter wrote:To be honest, Red Bull is quicky being caught up by McLaren and Ferrari. In Australia and Malaysia, Vettel rocketed into the leads and stayed there. In China, Hamilton managed to catch up and pass him. Turkey, another Red bull show, but in Spain, again, Hamilton was chasing him to the victory. Here in Monaco, again Vettel being chased to victory by now one, but two drivers. You might argue that it's poor tyre strategy by Red Bull, but I say it's the other guys catching up. By half season Vettle won't be winning anymore, unless Newey brings some new upgrades. Plus he engine mapping thingy will be banned soon, Red Bull will be in the clutches of McLaren and Ferrari very soon.

Until McLaren or Ferrari start qualifying ahead of Vettel, they haven't caught up.

I'm not going to judge performance on track from qualifying anymore. Qualifying has turned from an effort to be the fastest on track into a chess game.

Post by **mario** » 31 May 2011, 07:53

tc3j3r wrote:
Shizuka wrote:A certain Spanish driver has won 6 races and finished 2nd in the other three in the first 9 races of a season... and if it wasn't for a certain rival having a shock mechanical problem, he would have had a tough final race against this Spaniard.

What's more, the same predictions that are being made now were being made then... http://www.f1rejects.com/centrale/2006/canada/index.html

It depends, though - certainly, so far Vettel currently has made the strongest start to a season since Schumacher in 1994 and Mansell in 1992 (winning five of the first six races, with one second place).
It has to be noted that the next strongest starts to a season would be Button in 2009 (five wins and a 3rd place), Schumacher in 2002 and Jim Clark in 1965 (five wins, did not enter the Monaco GP as he was at the Indy 500) and Stewart in 1969 (five wins and a DNF in the Monaco GP). http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/2011/05/30/v ... rt-season/

Now, all of those drivers chalked up those achievements en route to a championship title - I do not rule out the possibility that Vettel could be caught and passed in the WDC, but it would require a quite sizeable slump in form for that to happen.

Peter · Post by **Peter** » 01 Jun 2011, 03:23

mario wrote:
tc3j3r wrote:
Shizuka wrote:A certain Spanish driver has won 6 races and finished 2nd in the other three in the first 9 races of a season... and if it wasn't for a certain rival having a shock mechanical problem, he would have had a tough final race against this Spaniard.

What's more, the same predictions that are being made now were being made then... http://www.f1rejects.com/centrale/2006/canada/index.html

It depends, though - certainly, so far Vettel currently has made the strongest start to a season since Schumacher in 1994 and Mansell in 1992 (winning five of the first six races, with one second place).
It has to be noted that the next strongest starts to a season would be Button in 2009 (five wins and a 3rd place), Schumacher in 2002 and Jim Clark in 1965 (five wins, did not enter the Monaco GP as he was at the Indy 500) and Stewart in 1969 (five wins and a DNF in the Monaco GP). http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/2011/05/30/v ... rt-season/

Now, all of those drivers chalked up those achievements en route to a championship title - I do not rule out the possibility that Vettel could be caught and passed in the WDC, but it would require a quite sizeable slump in form for that to happen.

Well, with the new points system, the possibility of catching up is far increased. I'll use my F1 2010 carer as an example. Hardest difficulty in my first season with Sauber, won every single race minus Sapin, Silverstone and Hungary, the latter a second place, one a DNF, the other a few points. It took me until Singapore to wrap up the title. By that time, I was pretty much going to win regardless, but it was still a mathematical possibility for the others to beat me.

Point is, Vettel won't be comfortable until the Chequered flag at Brazil/Bahrain/India whatever the hell the last race is. Especially if Hamilton can keep close in the points.

GroupLotusRenault · Post by **GroupLotusRenault** » 01 Jun 2011, 05:32

Vettel can win maybe two or three more. And just keep constant during the season scoring big points and still win by a margin.

Ferrim · Post by **Ferrim** » 01 Jun 2011, 07:34

tc3j3r wrote:
Shizuka wrote:A certain Spanish driver has won 6 races and finished 2nd in the other three in the first 9 races of a season... and if it wasn't for a certain rival having a shock mechanical problem, he would have had a tough final race against this Spaniard.

What's more, the same predictions that are being made now were being made then... http://www.f1rejects.com/centrale/2006/canada/index.html

I've taken the results of the first 9 races of the 2006 season and converted them to today's points system... Alonso would have been leading 204-140, a 64 points lead. Now Vettel has a 58 points lead but over just 6 races, the problem being that the competition behind Vettel is way closer than it was in 2006 behind Alonso. Vettel can stop winning races now and still be able to defend his lead, as long as McLaren and Ferrari are taking wins out of each other.

DanielPT · Post by **DanielPT** » 01 Jun 2011, 09:40

Ferrim wrote:
tc3j3r wrote:
Shizuka wrote:A certain Spanish driver has won 6 races and finished 2nd in the other three in the first 9 races of a season... and if it wasn't for a certain rival having a shock mechanical problem, he would have had a tough final race against this Spaniard.

What's more, the same predictions that are being made now were being made then... http://www.f1rejects.com/centrale/2006/canada/index.html

I've taken the results of the first 9 races of the 2006 season and converted them to today's points system... Alonso would have been leading 204-140, a 64 points lead. Now Vettel has a 58 points lead but over just 6 races, the problem being that the competition behind Vettel is way closer than it was in 2006 behind Alonso. Vettel can stop winning races now and still be able to defend his lead, as long as McLaren and Ferrari are taking wins out of each other.

And very much like Button did 2 years ago. When he won 6 races in 7 and then went winless but successfully defended his lead due to a mix of expert racecraft and uncompetitive outings by his title rivals.