2016 Silly Season Thread

[AndreaModa]

Now, whilst I imagine that Bernie would try to move heaven and earth to get Alonso into a third Mercedes if that were to pass - he would probably bank on a prize fight between Alonso and Hamilton really drawing in the crowds - Mercedes have always seemed rather ambivalent at best towards the idea of third cars, and seem to prefer to have more manufacturers rather than fewer.

Exactly, no-one with a passing interest will be able to tell you who's won the manufacturers crown in WRC, WTCC or probably even WEC because the competition there isn't anything like as high as in F1. We know because we take more than a passing interest in those championships but your average fan probably can't without checking Wikipedia. If the team/manufacturer count drops in F1, its attractiveness as a marketing prospect drops because the competition element, between teams at least, drops significantly. That's my point with the 3 series above. None of them have more than 3 manufacturers competing for the top prize, and in the case of WTCC and WRC, there are runaway winners making it even less interesting because no-one else comes close. F1 needs a high team count to keep that competitive edge in it and the interest and credibility high. Otherwise it will quickly become irrelevant.

[Dan B]

Just as a quick recap of what has transpired, here is what I have gathered:
- Ferrari:
Vettel
Raikkonen

- Mercedes:
Hamilton
Rosberg

- Williams:
Bottas
Massa

- Force India:
Hulkenberg
Perez

- Sauber
Nasr
Ericsson

Now for the single seats (at least on Wikipedia):
- Red Bull:
Ricciardo

- McLaren
Button

- Lotus/Renault
Maldonado

- Haas
Grosjean

- Toro Rosso
Verstappen


Here are my takes:
Red Bull: Kvyat is going to stay; I don't see why Red Bull would replace him considering he's done well this season (as well as that car can do at least). What's more worrying is their (and by extension, Toro Rosso's) engine dilemma. Mercedes denied them engines, Ferrari doesn't seem willing (though this is the most likely candidate) and if they don't want Renault I don't see them going Honda.

Haas: As much as I want to see Vergne in the other seat, it's most likely going to be Gutierrez taking it. Maaaaaybe Rossi but I doubt it considering Gunther Steiner's wanting of experience.

McLaren: I don't see Alonso staying much longer. If he gets the seat for 2016, it might as well be his last year at McLaren. If anything, I see Vandoorne taking the seat next year, while Button retires at the end of the 2016 season.

Lotus/Renault: I've heard rumors about Alonso returning here, and if they do it'd be a good lineup. Alternatively, who else could fill that seat? Rossi? Vergne?

Toro Rosso: Sainz; Like Kvyat, I don't see why Red Bull/STR would dump him.

Manor: Stevens and Merhi or Rossi. Not a fast lineup, but a solid and safe one. Alternatively, I don't know, maybe Kevin Magnussen? Stranger things have happened.

[Ataxia]

Lotus/Renault: I've heard rumors about Alonso returning here, and if they do it'd be a good lineup. Alternatively, who else could fill that seat? Rossi? Vergne?

Vergne and Magnussen are the front-runners for that seat. Ocon is in the mix too.

Manor: Stevens and Merhi or Rossi. Not a fast lineup, but a solid and safe one. Alternatively, I don't know, maybe Kevin Magnussen? Stranger things have happened.

Wehrlein is expected to be in one of the seats, since Mercedes have all but agreed a deal with Manor for engines next season.

[AndreaModa]

I'll be a bit sad if Mercedes force old Pascal into Manor. If I'm honest I don't think he'll be that good, I've never quite understood why Merc have had him lined up for what feels like ages now. Was his junior career that impressive?

[Klon]

I'll be a bit sad if Mercedes force old Pascal into Manor. If I'm honest I don't think he'll be that good, I've never quite understood why Merc have had him lined up for what feels like ages now. Was his junior career that impressive?

He finished the 2012 Formula 3 season 100 points ahead of Carlos Sainz, Jr. who has proven himself a competent F1 driver already. He is going to prematurely win this year's DTM title in a car that outside of him only Gary Paffett can haul into the top 10 of the standings. I am very much convinced that Wehrlein, if given a chance, will go on to do great things in Formula One.

[AndreaModa]

I'll be a bit sad if Mercedes force old Pascal into Manor. If I'm honest I don't think he'll be that good, I've never quite understood why Merc have had him lined up for what feels like ages now. Was his junior career that impressive?

He finished the 2012 Formula 3 season 100 points ahead of Carlos Sainz, Jr. who has proven himself a competent F1 driver already. He is going to prematurely win this year's DTM title in a car that outside of him only Gary Paffett can haul into the top 10 of the standings. I am very much convinced that Wehrlein, if given a chance, will go on to do great things in Formula One.

Fair enough, it was a genuine question, I wasn't being an arsehole. I just never really understood why he was there. But if he can beat Sainz in F3 by that margin then he can't be that bad! Sign him up Manor!

[AdrianSutil]

BBC Sport are reporting that Haas are going to be announcing their first driver sometime today! Getting excited now! Who is realistically in with a chance anyway?

Grosjean
Magnussen
Gutierrez
Vergne
Rossi?

Anyone else?

[Backmarker]

It's 100% going to be Grosjean.

[pi314159]

Red Bull withdrawing might actually happen now. The uncertainity about their engines is causing both Red Bull and Toro Rosso to fall behind schedule on their cars for next season. According to Helmut Marko, Ferrari only offered Red Bull 2015-spec engines, while Haas and Sauber are getting new ones for next year, which Marko called an insult.

The only good news coming out of this is that Mateschitz announced not to shut down the factories in Milton Keynes and Faenza, even if they withdraw. In case they pull out of F1, they'd work on "other projects" which haven't been specified yet.

[tommykl]

From what I gather, Red Bull brought this on themselves. Bad-mouthing Renault all season long before finally dumping them without making sure they had a back-up engine deal secured is a pretty poor management move.

[Waris]

I guess that means soon enough we'll see an engine deal announced, maybe with a bit of help from Bernie, in which they get a one-year supply of new (2016) Ferrari engines, during which year they have to find a solution for 2017 onward, either by luring an engine manufacturer (Cosworth, AVL, Judd...) into F1, or by designing their own engine. (please call it Gives You Wings)

[IceG]

I would be interested in your collective views on the veracity of http://www.grandprix.com/ft/can-red-bull-quit.html article concerning the financial penalties which RB/TR would incur if thy missed a season or dropped out altogether.

I think F1 would be damaged by the loss of the two teams, especially as they have at least two and possibly four talented future F1 world champions - what would they do, where could they go? But I would not be sad to see the back of the Red Bull attitude which has little to do with the ethos and philosophy of motorsport. Hopefully buyers can be found for both teams.

And I also hope that BE does not use this as an excuse to force in three-car teams for even one year. At that point, the efforts of Force India, Manor, etc. become pointless (literally and metaphorically - causing massive loss of income) and they will quickly drop out of F1 as the funds disappear.

[DanielPT]

From what I gather, Red Bull brought this on themselves. Bad-mouthing Renault all season long before finally dumping them without making sure they had a back-up engine deal secured is a pretty poor management move.

Maybe Lauda is right in the end and Mateshitz has completely lost the interest in F1. Or they believed they could blackmail their way into a Mercedes deal. Either way, both moves are unlike those who are there to race.

I would be interested in your collective views on the veracity of http://www.grandprix.com/ft/can-red-bull-quit.html article concerning the financial penalties which RB/TR would incur if thy missed a season or dropped out altogether.

They do have penalties in place for leaving F1 before time. That is the point Bernie was trying to negotiate for the agreements a few years ago. To prevent teams from jumping ship like Toyota, Honda or Renault. Of course no team can race without an engine (competitive in the view of RBR) so perhaps they are going that way to talk their way out of the penalties. But I am pretty sure it wouldn't stick in court.

[IceG]

Of course no team can race without an engine (competitive in the view of RBR) so perhaps they are going that way to talk their way out of the penalties. But I am pretty sure it wouldn't stick in court.

Of course Red Bull and Toro Rosso had engine contracts for 2016 but they themselves pulled out early which kinda stymies that defence.

[FMecha]

Red Bull withdrawing might actually happen now. The uncertainity about their engines is causing both Red Bull and Toro Rosso to fall behind schedule on their cars for next season. According to Helmut Marko, Ferrari only offered Red Bull 2015-spec engines, while Haas and Sauber are getting new ones for next year, which Marko called an insult.

The only good news coming out of this is that Mateschitz announced not to shut down the factories in Milton Keynes and Faenza, even if they withdraw. In case they pull out of F1, they'd work on "other projects" which haven't been specified yet.

But is what Ferrari doing to RB even legal, though? Regulations only allows for one homologated engines per manufacturer (Manor got a special dispensation this year, and that's a different business). To give RBR/STR 2015 engines while their other customers get 2016 ones requires them to homologate two engines.

[DanielPT]

Of course no team can race without an engine (competitive in the view of RBR) so perhaps they are going that way to talk their way out of the penalties. But I am pretty sure it wouldn't stick in court.

Of course Red Bull and Toro Rosso had engine contracts for 2016 but they themselves pulled out early which kinda stymies that defence.

They can try to argue to Bernie that there is no point in going out with noncompetitive engines. Of course, on court is another matter.

Speaking of courts, finally someone had the balls! Hope this is the start of some changes!

F1 teams lodge official EU complaint over 'unfair' structure!

Of course, I fear now for those teams as Bernie will no doubt try to punish them for that.

[dr-baker]

But is what Ferrari doing to RB even legal, though? Regulations only allows for one homologated engines per manufacturer (Manor got a special dispensation this year, and that's a different business). To give RBR/STR 2015 engines while their other customers get 2016 ones requires them to homologate two engines.

Well, they have one homologated engine per year, so the 2014 engine was homologated, as is the 2015 engine, as will be the 2016 engine... Not sure how the regulations interpret that, however...

Speaking of courts, finally someone had the balls! Hope this is the start of some changes!

F1 teams lodge official EU complaint over 'unfair' structure!

Of course, I fear now for those teams as Bernie will no doubt try to punish them for that.

When the concerns were first raised with the EU Competitions Commissioner, I thought I read that the person(s) raising the complaint officially had to be an EU resident/citizen. So presumably it is neither Vijay Mallya nor Peter Sauber in this case officially making this complaint (although Wikipedia says that Monisha Kaltenborn has Austrian citizenship).

But in any case, this is good news.

[Faustus]

Red Bull withdrawing might actually happen now. The uncertainity about their engines is causing both Red Bull and Toro Rosso to fall behind schedule on their cars for next season. According to Helmut Marko, Ferrari only offered Red Bull 2015-spec engines, while Haas and Sauber are getting new ones for next year, which Marko called an insult.

The only good news coming out of this is that Mateschitz announced not to shut down the factories in Milton Keynes and Faenza, even if they withdraw. In case they pull out of F1, they'd work on "other projects" which haven't been specified yet.

But is what Ferrari doing to RB even legal, though? Regulations only allows for one homologated engines per manufacturer (Manor got a special dispensation this year, and that's a different business). To give RBR/STR 2015 engines while their other customers get 2016 ones requires them to homologate two engines.

The engines are homologated by virtue of the 2015 specification being homologated during 2015. What can't happen is make changes to the 2015-specification engine in 2016.

From what I hear, the deal with Ferrari is done and Red Bull is making waves in the media because they want absolute parity with Ferrari so that they receive any updates at the same time as the factory team, which Ferrari is apparently not willing to commit to.

[Aguaman]

Kind of thought we were going to get 2 drivers announced for Haas instead of the 1 (Grosjean)

[CoopsII]

Kind of thought we were going to get 2 drivers announced for Haas instead of the 1 (Grosjean)

Maybe Villeneuve is still haggling for terms.

Either way I'm really pleased for Grosjean. I hope he's partnered with a rookie so he can show what he can do as team leader/number 1.

[Wallio]

Not sure what to think about the RoGro signing. Do we see the classic "Oppa Grosjean-Style" first lap nutcase? Or the "I'm a father now and can actually drive pretty damn well" version? Either way should see Haas get plenty of highlights.

So which Ferrari driver gets the number 2 seat? Or hasn't the Scuderia picked yet?

[FMecha]

Turns out Red Bull never talked to Mercedes when offered

Things gets more interesting - and I still hope the Red Bulls get engines for next year.

[Dj_bereta]

This silly season finally gets "silly"! If Red Bull and Toro Rosso get out of F1 and Mercedes and Ferrari put a third car... Ferrari will grab Ricciardo? Mercedes will grab Verstappen jr? This will be the end of Sainz jr and Kvyat careers?

[CoopsII]

I think Button will stay with a pay cut.

Autosport is suggesting he's going to announce his retirement at Suzuka.

Autosport and it DIDN'T HAPPEN! Losers.

[Whiteshore]

Maybe we could get Red Bull in Indycars, which could result in it regaining it's popularity at it's pre-split levels? But if they stay in F1, how do you think would they get F1 engines if Ferrari won't be able to give them engines? Build their own? Lure Cosworth back to F1?

[Salamander]

Maybe we could get Red Bull in Indycars, which could result in it regaining it's popularity at it's pre-split levels?

They had one (sort of, it was Eddie Cheever's team as well).


And no, it would probably take something ridiculously drastic like Ferrari and Mercedes, and Vettel, Alonso, and Hamilton switching to IndyCar to achieve that level of popularity, and that would only be on European interest, not American, and even then I'm a little doubtful whether that would be enough. Not that IndyCar would capitalise on such an opportunity, regardless...

But if they stay in F1, how do you think would they get F1 engines if Ferrari won't be able to give them engines? Build their own? Lure Cosworth back to F1?

If Red Bull isn't bluffing, then they will leave if they can't get 2016-spec Ferrari engines. Neither of those alternatives are even remotely workable at this stage

[Bobby Doorknobs]

I think Button will stay with a pay cut.

Autosport is suggesting he's going to announce his retirement at Suzuka.

Autosport and it DIDN'T HAPPEN! Losers.

But Autosport said... Excuse me.

*Simtek has taken a moment alone to reassess his beliefs*

[dr-baker]

I think Button will stay with a pay cut.

Autosport is suggesting he's going to announce his retirement at Suzuka.

Autosport and it DIDN'T HAPPEN! Losers.

To be honest, as a Button fan, I'm glad they got it wrong on this occasion. So get over yourself!

[Spectoremg]

So, Button's staying. Under the restrictions imposed on development can Honda turn it around? Could they for instance build a new engine?

[Salamander]

So, Button's staying. Under the restrictions imposed on development can Honda turn it around? Could they for instance build a new engine?

Short answer: no. Long answer: noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

I'm pretty sure just building and designing a new engine is against the rules, but even if it wasn't, there's no point because there's only so much you can do without actual field testing. The only real way Honda and Renault can catch up is if the restrictions are lifted, because as it is they can only keep up with Mercedes at best.

[Spectoremg]

So, Button's staying. Under the restrictions imposed on development can Honda turn it around? Could they for instance build a new engine?

Short answer: no. Long answer: noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

I'm pretty sure just building and designing a new engine is against the rules, but even if it wasn't, there's no point because there's only so much you can do without actual field testing. The only real way Honda and Renault can catch up is if the restrictions are lifted, because as it is they can only keep up with Mercedes at best.

Thanks, I thought as much. So under the current rules the haves will always be ahead of the have-nots.

[mario]

So, Button's staying. Under the restrictions imposed on development can Honda turn it around? Could they for instance build a new engine?

Short answer: no. Long answer: noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

I'm pretty sure just building and designing a new engine is against the rules, but even if it wasn't, there's no point because there's only so much you can do without actual field testing. The only real way Honda and Renault can catch up is if the restrictions are lifted, because as it is they can only keep up with Mercedes at best.

Thanks, I thought as much. So under the current rules the haves will always be ahead of the have-nots.

It is one of those things where the engine itself is not so much the cause of Honda's woes as the inefficiency of their energy recovery systems, particularly the thermal energy recovery system.

It is thought that Honda effectively made the same mistake as Ferrari did in 2014 by focussing more on the compactness of their engine package - driven by McLaren's focus on having the most compact rear bodywork possible - in order to optimise the performance of the chassis, and in the process hampered the efficiency of the engine package.

In both instances, one factor that has been cited is the design of the turbocharger - in the case of Ferrari, it is thought that they underestimated the potential for generating energy from the thermal energy recovery systems and focussed more on responsiveness, driving them towards a smaller turbine.

In the case of Honda, it seems that the driving motivation there was to adopt the most compact unit possible to satisfy McLaren's packaging requirements. The suggestion is that Honda tried to compensate for the restrictions on the size of their engine package by using a more compact turbocharger that was able to hit the limit of 125,000rpm dictated in the regulations (the rumour is that Mercedes focussed on a larger unit that reaches 100,00rpm by comparison) to try and hit their targets for the energy recovery systems.
However, the talk is that Honda have found it much more difficult to hit that target speed than they first thought and, due to issues with the bearings, are currently limited to 100,000rpm, creating their current issues where the thermal energy recovery systems are performance limited.

Now, the progress of the engine manufacturers under the regulations has been somewhat mixed - Renault have definitely struggled, but on the other hand the rather fractious relationship between themselves and Red Bull has been something of a hindrance (for example, Renault being forced to fast-track development parts without adequate testing after being pressurised by Red Bull to speed up development work). On the other hand, the Ferrari powertrain has definitely improved significantly from 2014 to 2015, and their performance was not that much better than Renault in 2014.

[dr-baker]

So, Button's staying. Under the restrictions imposed on development can Honda turn it around? Could they for instance build a new engine?

Short answer: no. Long answer: noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

I'm pretty sure just building and designing a new engine is against the rules, but even if it wasn't, there's no point because there's only so much you can do without actual field testing. The only real way Honda and Renault can catch up is if the restrictions are lifted, because as it is they can only keep up with Mercedes at best.

Thanks, I thought as much. So under the current rules the haves will always be ahead of the have-nots.

Could Mugen come in as a new engine supplier with a brand new engine, with lessons learnt from Honda?

[Bobby Doorknobs]

Nige reminding everyone that he's still available for a drive next year.

[CaptainGetz12]

Nige reminding everyone that he's still available for a drive next year.

The better question is can he be faster than Jean Alesi in the same car? 'Cause last time I checked Mansell was not keeping his skills sharp in an open-wheeler...

[FMecha]

Mercedes in favor of 3-car teams

I believe this is just an excuse to keep their domination as well as that they're supporting RBR leaving the sport.

[novitopoli]

Looks like we're gonna miss Bernie quite soon.

[Fetzie]

Looks like we're gonna miss Bernie quite soon.

Or maybe not:

"The 84-year-old has not identified the potential buyers, but said he had been asked to remain as commercial chief, a role he has held since 1978. "

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/34460582

[dr-baker]

Looks like we're gonna miss Bernie quite soon.

Or maybe not:

"The 84-year-old has not identified the potential buyers, but said he had been asked to remain as commercial chief, a role he has held since 1978. "

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/34460582

On reading this on Autosport earlier, I assumed it was CVC selling their shares. Autosport Plus were explaining earlier in the year that companies like CVC only hold onto entities for up to 10 years, and the CVC/F1 relationship is now about that old, so it's being anticipated that CVC will be moving on soon.

[dinizintheoven]

"Is Formula 1 losing its soul?"
Formula 1's obsession with money and growth could come at the expense of its rich history, writes BBC F1 analyst Allan McNish.

Or, to put it another way, Pope Francis is an ardent supporter of Roman Catholicism, and when I was out in the woods earlier I found something brown and pungent that could only have been dropped by a bear.